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Has the Referendum Race Really Narrowed?

Followers of our Poll of Polls will be aware that it has been suggesting that the referendum race has narrowed somewhat during the course of the autumn. At the end of September it stood briefly at Remain 54% Leave 46%, for most of October it read, Remain 53% Leave 47%, but since the middle of November it has suggested that the Remain camp are on just 51% and Leave on 49%. However a glance at the list of individual polls that have been included in our Poll of Polls calculation reveals that while most have put Remain narrowly ahead (though no more than that) two have suggested that Remain are in fact quite comfortably ahead. The first was a poll conducted by ComRes towards the end of September, the other one undertaken by Ipsos MORI in the middle of October. ComRes estimated that (once Don't Knows were excluded) Remain were on 60%, Leave on 40%, while Ipsos MORI reckoned Remain were on 59%, Leave on 41%.

JC
27 Dec 2015
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